Population studies ­ demographic transition in developing countries
By A. Swaby-Burton, Contributor

WELCOME BACK, in this issue I will be looking at problems of the demographic transition theory and move on to highlight demographic transition in developing countries.

How valid is the demographic theory?

First we must recognise that it is merely a hypothesis. The fact that some societies have followed a pattern of demographic transition does not mean that every society will do so. It is possible that specific factors operating in a particular society could speed the transition or delay it, or even "freeze" it at a particular point. For example, the Japanese demographic transition, did not follow the historical pattern of Western societies but was influenced by unique factors in Japanese culture and society. The Japanese government started a deliberate policy of population limitation after World War II, relying on abortion as a primary means of birth control. The result was the most spectacular drop in birth rates ever recorded from 34 per thousand to 14 per thousand in the ten years between 1947 and 1957. Half the conceptions in Japan during this time were terminated by abortions. It is the belief of many that two factors worked for the Japanese, the strong central government that had traditionally enjoyed the loyalty of the entire nation and because the Japanese unlike many other people, did not regard abortion as basically immoral. If these factors has not operated, it is doubtful whether Japan could have achieved the transition in the time that it did (Taeuber, 1960).

The second problem with demographic - transition theory is that it assumes that an economic 'threshold' must be reached before the transition will take place. Dudley Kirk (1971) points out that there is generally a close connection between a decline in birth rates and the level of socio economic development, with per capita income and education level as important factors. If this view is correct, we cannot expect a transition in the developing nations until they are more economically advanced. Yet the poorest and most populous nations are precisely those that find economic advancement most difficult. The reason lies in the vicious cycle of poverty and over population.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD

There are a number of important differences in the way that developing countries have undergone population change compared to the experiences of most developed nations before them. In the developing world:

* birth rate in stages 1 and 2 were generally higher

* the death rate fell much more steeply and for different reasons

* some countries had much larger base populations and thus the impact of high growth in stage 2 and the early part of stage 3 has been far greater

* for those countries in stage 3 the fall in fertility has also been steeper

* the relationship between population change and economic development has been much more tenuous.

THE COMPOSITION OF POPULATION CHANGE

The relationship between birth and deaths (natural change) is not the only factor in population change. The balance between immigration and emigration (net migration) must also be taken into account as the input and output model of population change below shows. The corrugated divide on the diagram indicates that the relative contributions of natural change and net migration can vary over time within a particular country as well as varying between countries at any one point in time. The model is a simple graphical alternative to the population equation P = (B - D) + M, the letters standing for population births, deaths and migration respectively.

Discussions will continue next week as we explore Marx's theory of population and make comparison with that of Malthus.